The RotoCop

Jorge Cantu and Garrett Jones are my kind of players: Guys that nobody else seems to want to own that can help you win your league.  Now, there are some obvious differences between these two, namely that Cantu hits in a better lineup, is more proven, and has hit much better so far this year.  All that means, though, is that Cantu might be a little less underrated than he was a month ago (but still underrated by many), whereas the somewhat more risky Jones continues to fly well under the radar and can be had for a song (I just picked him up in my 12-team league and didn’t need to use a waiver claim to do it).

We’ll start with Cantu, who makes me wish I had started this website before he led baseball in RBIs in April… Anyway, Dalton Del Don of Rotowire could have been speaking for a lot more of the fantasy community than just himself when he uttered this mia culpa: “I’ve never been a big Jorge Cantu fan in fantasy leagues, but frankly, it’s been to my detriment.”  But let’s give Dalton some credit for living up to his past mistakes.  He hits on a point about Cantu’s power that I have been making ever since I approached my keeper league offseason without a third baseman: “While he still managed 100 RBIs last season, it’s pretty clear he was playing through a debilitating ankle injury, so a return to his 2008 type power (when he hit 29 homers) can’t be ruled out in 2010.”  It wouldn’t just be a return to his 2008 type power, either: Cantu also smacked 28 homers and 117 RBIs in his only other 500-plus at bat season in 2005.  When healthy, this guy’s legit.

Dalton also makes a good point when he writes that Cantu “has a better chance of driving in those runs because of his inability to walk much – that’s actually a plus in fantasy terms.”  Indeed, Cantu rarely forces his owners to endure the frustration that is watching your guy work the count and draw a walk with runners at the corners and nobody out.  You could argue that Cantu’s batting average would be a bit higher if he were a more patient hitter, but he’s actually hit over .285 in two of his three 5oo-plus at bat seasons, and is a .278 hitter for his career.  I’ll gladly take that at a scarce position when combined with nice RBI and HR production.

Now let’s move on to Jones.  I get to earn the money I’m not making on this website with this one, because the jury is still very much out of Garrett.  It’s certainly possible that Jones will end up being waiver wire fodder in all leagues by season’s end, but I don’t think he deserves to be there right now.  That’s why I was appalled when I read this from the Roto Times: “While [Jones is] a great source of cheap power in NL-only leagues, he’s borderline unownable in most mixed formats.”  Borderline unownable?  Really?  Let’s examine the facts.

These are Garrett Jones’ stats from 2009: 314 ABs, .293 avg., 45 Runs, 21 HRs, 44 RBIs, 10 SBs.  Granted, the RBI and Run production in a pretty weak Pirates lineup were not as elite as the other stats, but who wouldn’t want a guy who put up a half season of what would amount to 37 HRs and 18 SBs (with a .290+ batting average) in 550 at bats?  Plus, a glance at Garrett’s split stats shows that he absolutely owned right-handed pitching to the tune of a .333 avg., 15 HRs, and 9 SBs in 213 at bats.  For those of you scoring at home, that amounts to a 39 HR, 23 SB pace over 550 at bats, with an elite average to boot.  Now, through 93 at bats this year, Jones is hitting just .237 with 4 HRs, 17 RBI, 11 Runs, and 2 steals.  He’ll “only” get 24 HRs, 101 RBIs, and 12 steals if he keeps up that pace for 550 at bats.  Even those numbers don’t seem “borderline unownable” to me, unless you actually believe he’s going to hit .237 all season.

Some people might just not have noticed last year’s numbers because they were only in half a season.  And Jones was far from an elite prospect, so that probably explains why a lot of people think last year’s numbers were a fluke.  That line of thinking is working out real well with Casey McGehee, huh? The fact is, sometimes top prospects like Alex Gordon never pan out, and non-prospects like Jones and McGehee do.  I’m obviously more willing to jump on an elite prospect before some schmo who gets hot for a couple weeks, but I think we’ve seen enough from Jones and McGehee at this point to find room for them on our rosters, prospect status be damned.  The Pirates may not have a whole lot to choose from, but they’re batting Jones in the heart of their order, so clearly they like what they see.  His power/speed combo looks real to me, and the big-time splits make me happy to try him out against weaker right-handers while I find out if he’s the real deal.  If he’s not, I’ll have lost nothing besides a roster space for the time I owned him.