How High Should You Reach For Adrian Gonzalez?
When the Boston Red Sox completed a trade with the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez in early December, the move was met with as much fanfare as can be expected from a major off-season deal. But as sports fans gradually transition to baseball mode, the excitement surrounding the A-Gone acquisition is sure to skyrocket.
While the Padres surprised the baseball world by competing for a playoff spot in 2010, they remain a small market team far from the northeast media machine. When Gonzalez dons a Red Sox uniform, he will begin to attract the media attention that goes along with a prime spot in Red Sox Nation.
No doubt the fantasy experts will be increasingly hyping Gonzalez, too. And why shouldn’t they? He will be moving from the worst ballpark for hitters in all of baseball to Fenway Park, one of the best. And he’ll be leaving a lineup with Chris Denorfia, David Eckstein, Miguel Tejada, and Ryan Ludwick, to join one featuring Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz.
But Gonzalez still seems a bit underrated in some fantasy circles. The numbers he put up outside of spacious Petco Park provide a sneak preview of what fantasy owners can expect. Extrapolating his road stats over the last four years to a full season, Gonzalez is averaging a .306 batting average, 45 HRs, 128 RBIs, and 112 Runs. Look at only the last three years, and the numbers are even better.
Gonzalez is only 28 years old, meaning he just entered his prime. He did have minor off-season surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, but the procedure did not prevent the Red Sox from dealing three strong prospects for him, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.
Unless words spreads of a setback with Gonzalez’s shoulder, the move to Boston instantly vaults him ahead of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder in fantasy value among first basemen. While RBI and Run totals are tough to predict, only Teixeira is likely to have the number of opportunities to produce that Gonzalez will hitting in the middle of a lethal Red Sox lineup. But the real difference is that Gonzalez is the most likely of that group to pair a 40 HR season with a .300+ batting average. Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and perhaps Joey Votto are the only hitters in baseball more likely to reach those milestones than Gonzalez, and they’re the only first basemen who should be going ahead of him in fantasy drafts.
There’s no question that first base is deeper than most other positions this year. And Gonzalez may have some minor growing pains as he learns American League pitchers. But when you consider his potential to put up elite numbers in four of the five standard rotisserie league categories, Adrian Gonzalez has the look of a mid-to-late first round pick in fantasy leagues.
