The RotoCop

(No, I’m not cheating: This post appeared on Bleacher Report on March 28, so I didn’t wait until after the first weekend of the season to make this list.  If I had, I might have thought twice about including John Lackey after last night’s debacle! But probably not.)

In all likelihood, Bud Selig won’t be hosting your fantasy baseball draft this year—but that doesn’t mean it’s not a big deal. You probably wouldn’t be reading this article if you weren’t in it to win it, and while it’s tough to win a league if your top picks don’t deliver, the best way to truly separate yourself from your fantasy league opponents is by nabbing some late-round value picks.

The key to uncovering late-round draft day steals is to get a sense of what types of players tend to be undervalued in the fantasy marketplace.

As I’ve detailed elsewhere, in reasonably shallow leagues sometimes it is the injury-prone player who can dramatically outproduce his draft slot while healthy. Sometimes it is the former superstar many managers wrongly assume is now washed up. Sometimes it is the famed “post-hype sleeper,” a relatively young player who did not initially live up to the hype but still possesses the talent that made them a touted prospect in the first place. Sometimes it’s a player whose consistent production year after year is routinely under-appreciated, perhaps because the player isn’t “flashy” enough.

For our purposes, “late-round” steals will only include players who are going in the 15th round or later (pick 169 onward) in 12-team standard leagues, according to either Mock Draft Central or Yahoo average draft position data.

On to the list we go.

40. Aaron Harang, SP, Padres (MDC ADP: 393, Yahoo ADP: > 263)

Harang was nothing short of a disaster during his final three seasons in Cincinnati, as he went a combined 18-38 while never finishing with an ERA below 4.21 or WHIP below 1.38. While he lost 17 games in 2008 and 14 games in 2009, last year may have actually been the worst, as he finished with a 5.32 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

It’s hard to have too much faith in Harang after that string of putrid performances, but this wouldn’t be the first time Petco Park turned a mediocre hurler into a solid fantasy asset. Harang is a fly ball pitcher who should benefit from Petco’s spacious outfield, and he was a decent pitcher from 2005-2007. Some San Diego sun (and long fly outs) may be just what he needs to regain some of that magic.

Don’t expect miracles. However, decent strikeouts, an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.30 are possible here.

39. Tim Stauffer, SP, Padres (MDC ADP: 350, Yahoo ADP: 246)

Harang’s rotation mate Stauffer also deserves some sleeper consideration. Stauffer induces more ground balls than Harang, but pitching half his games at Petco will still help Stauffer’s chances at a sub-4.00 ERA.

Stauffer doesn’t have the past success as a starter that Harang does, but he also doesn’t have Harang’s baggage. Stauffer was an adequate starter for San Diego in 2009 and a very effective reliever last year. He then moved to the rotation in September and was quite good, allowing more than one run in just one of his six late season starts.

Stauffer won’t strike out a ton of batters, but he’s a better bet than Harang for solid peripherals.

38. Chris Young, SP, New York Mets (MDC ADP: 392, Yahoo ADP: 246)

You can’t draft “the other Chris Young” expecting a full season; that simply never happens (he’s never topped 180 innings in a season). But Young is throwing very well in spring training, and he should be extremely good for as long as he can stay healthy.

Young’s 2006 and 2007 seasons with San Diego give you a good idea of the kind of numbers he is capable of if he is healthy and pitching at his best for most of the season. Those two seasons, Young finished with an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP at 1.13 or lower and nearly a strikeout per inning.

That’s a best-case scenario, to be sure. Young probably won’t be quite that good, even if he does manage to pitch 150-plus innings. However, Citi Field is the next best thing to Petco for a fly ball pitcher like Young, so there’s nothing wrong with taking him at the end of your draft and pitching him for as many innings as he’ll give you.

37. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers (MDC ADP: 326, Yahoo ADP: 212)

Frankly, I’m a bit shocked that I’m putting Jackson on this list. If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have guessed that Jackson would belong on a list of overrated players, not late-round steals.

Jackson rode a Major League-leading .396 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to a .293 batting average and second-place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Many fantasy baseball managers don’t pay attention to sabermetric statistics like BABIP, and yet it’s hard to draw any conclusion other than that Jackson’s high BABIP either directly or indirectly convinced many people that his 2010 stat line was a fluke.

It’s easy to chalk up Jackson’s BABIP to pure luck, and there’s no question that he can’t maintain that batting average if he continues to strike out more than one out of every four times he comes to the plate. But Jackson had high BABIPs throughout his minor league career, too, which isn’t entirely surprising given his speed. He’s also still just 24 years old and could take a step forward this season.

All in all, Jackson makes for an intriguing late-game pick who the projection systems expect to remain an asset in batting average and steals while scoring plenty of runs in a strong Tigers lineup.

36. Matt Capps, RP, Minnesota Twins (MDC ADP: 302, Yahoo ADP: 208)

This is more about the mounting concern over Joe Nathan than anything else. While we should never overrate spring statistics, Nathan has been absolutely awful in preseason games and doesn’t look right coming back from Tommy John surgery.

Capps, on the other hand, has had a nice spring and could “temporarily” take the closer job and run with it. Outside of a forgettable 2009 season, Capps has been an excellent late-inning reliever since he started saving games in 2007.

In short, Capps is a must-have handcuff for Nathan owners, but he’s also well worth a late-round pick for any manager searching for an unlikely name who could end up saving 20-plus games this year with strong peripheral numbers.

35. Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (MDC ADP: 292, Yahoo ADP: 217)

There are lots of young outfielders to like from a fantasy perspective these days, but most of them come with pretty high price tags. Snider is a notable exception.

Snider is just 23 years old, has a first round pedigree and has already blasted 25 HRs in his first 612 Major League at-bats. Last year, he hit 14 bombs in just 298 at-bats.

There’s also something in the water in Toronto (or at least the water in hitting coach Dwayne Murphy’s office). The Blue Jays have a free-swinging approach that allowed them to surprisingly lead the league in home runs last year—by a good margin.

While he probably won’t hit higher than .275 or so, Snider could be the next Jay to benefit from Murphy’s tutelage with a 30-plus home run season.

34. Edwin Encarnacion, DH/3B, Toronto Blue Jays (MDC ADP: 353, Yahoo ADP: 241)

Encarnacion has teased fantasy owners with his potential too many times to count. So why am I a believer this time around?

Like Snider, Edwin stands to benefit from the Blue Jays’ power-hitting approach. Encarnacion put up 21 HRs in just 332 at-bats last year and 26 HR in 506 at-bats in 2009. It wouldn’t be completely shocking to see him out-slug top-50 pick Jose Bautista in a full 2011 season.

Penciled in as the team’s starting DH, Encarnacion has a clear path to playing time in Toronto, something that wasn’t true for much of his time in Cincinnati. Add the fact that he still has 3B eligibility in Yahoo leagues, and Encarnacion makes for an intriguing late-game pick.

33. John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox (MDC ADP: 173, Yahoo ADP: 218)

Lackey’s streak of five straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and four straight seasons with a WHIP of 1.27 or lower ended in 2010 when he posted a bloated 4.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Some say Lackey’s struggles show he can’t handle pitching in the challenging AL East and hitter- friendly Fenway Park, but the answer is not so simple.

In my mind, Lackey’s struggles last year were mostly due to over-thinking and over-pitching. Faced with the media spotlight of playing in Boston—and pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball’s toughest division—Lackey got too cute instead of challenging hitters. As a result, he posted the second highest walk rate of his nine-year career. Lackey was also fairly unlucky, surrendering his highest BABIP since 2005 and posting the lowest strand rate of his career.

His 3.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after the All-Star break are more in line with his past performance and are a fair expectation for 2011. With decent strikeouts and good win potential, I’d gladly take those numbers based on where he’s being drafted right now.

32. Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (MDC ADP: 257, Yahoo ADP: 230)

Kennedy is only 26 years old and put up a solid 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 168 strikeouts in 194 innings in 2010. However, as a former first-round pick, Kennedy’s strong finish to the season gives hope that even better things could be in store for him and his fantasy owners in 2011.

In September, Kennedy posted a sparkling 1.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 29 innings. While he doesn’t pitch in a particularly pitcher-friendly ballpark, there are several of them in his division and a couple less-than-threatening lineups, too. Oh yeah, and no DH. After toiling for the Yankees in the AL East, that can’t look too bad.

Consider Kennedy’s 2010 line as a baseline expectation for what he can do, and anything above that is just gravy based on where you’ll have to take him.

31. James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (MDC ADP: 178, Yahoo ADP: 229)

Shields has had a couple rough years in a row, but a closer look at his peripheral statistics shows that he is really the same pitcher he’s always been. Shield’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) numbers from 2009 and 2010 were relatively consistent with his 2007 and 2008 seasons, in which he posted excellent ERAs and WHIPs.

While 2007 and 2008 may be a best-case scenario, 2010 was clearly the worst numbers Shields could possibly put up. While his walk rate has inched up a bit, Shields also saw a big jump in his strikeout rate last year.

Put it all together, and Shields seems like a decent bet for a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP. Despite losing Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays’ acquisitions of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon should ensure that they still provide plenty of run support for Shields and the rest of the pitching staff.

30. Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies (MDC ADP: 267, Yahoo ADP: 245)

Fowler is another one of the few young outfielders coming at a nice bargain in fantasy drafts this year. Part of the reason might be that he had a disappointing 2010 campaign, particularly in the steals department. He nabbed just 13 in 439 at-bats after stealing 27 in 433 at-bats in 2009.

Let’s use some common sense here; Fowler is still a fast guy, he just didn’t run as much last year. While he’s yet to prove that he can hit for a high average at the Major League level (he’s hit .259 through his first 900 at-bats), he’s got a great chance to top 30 stolen bases and score 90-plus runs hitting atop a loaded Rockies lineup.

29. David Freese, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (MDC ADP:384, Yahoo ADP: 244)

Freese didn’t show much power during his first extended stint in the big leagues last season, hitting just four home runs in 270 at-bats, but he did flash his ability to hit for a nice batting average, finishing at .296.

Some may point to Freese’s high .376 BABIP, but the fact is he was a consistent .300 hitter throughout his minor league career. In fact, if anything was unsustainable about his 2010 line, it was the lack of power—something that may be at least partially explained by the ankle injury he suffered.

Freese is beginning to get stuck with the injury-prone label, and he’s unlikely to develop 30 HR power, so you want to keep those things in mind when you decide just how far to reach for him. That said, 3B is quite shallow this year. Nabbing a young third baseman with the ability to hit .300 and belt 20 HRs late in your draft should be mighty appetizing.

28. Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado Rockies (MDC ADP: 329, Yahoo ADP: 230)

Iannetta has been a trendy sleeper pick ever since he hammered 18 home runs in just 333 at-bats in 2008, but it’s been a rocky road for him since then (yeah, I went there).

Iannetta displayed similar power in 2009, hitting 16 home runs in 289 at-bats, but his BABIP tumbled and so did his batting average—from .264 in ’08 down to .228 in ’09. Things got even worse in 2010, when Miguel Olivo caught fire for the entire first half of the season and took hold of the starting job, while Iannetta failed to hit above the Mendoza line.

Now, with Olivo in Seattle, Iannetta will get a real shot at a full season’s worth of at-bats. That (and ample Major League experience) is what separates him from another slugging catcher, the Blue Jays’ J.P. Arrencibia, who will reportedly only catch three out of every five games.

Based on his past power output, 500 at-bats for Iannetta could mean upwards of 25 homers. Like many catchers, Iannetta will always be a bit of a batting average liability, but with even an average BABIP he could hit at least .240 or .250.

27. Danny Espinosa, 2B, Washington Nationals (MDC ADP: 382, Yahoo ADP: > 265)

I just picked Espinosa up off the waiver wire in my Yahoo 12-team keeper league—he wasn’t even drafted. It’s true that 2B is reasonably deep this year, and there’s no question Espinosa’s value would be significantly higher if he and Ian Desmond switched spots and Espinosa gained shortstop eligibility (he doesn’t have it in Yahoo).

But still, this guy should absolutely be owned. Bill James’ projections, which do tend to be hitter- friendly, call for 21 HRs and 19 SBs for Espinosa in just 424 at-bats. It’s not just James predicting big things for Espinosa; ZIPS similarly projects 20 HRs and 19 SBs. To put those numbers in perspective, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips are the only second basemen to go 20-20 since 2002, and nobody accomplished that feat last season.

He’ll be starting the season hitting seventh—manager Jim Riggleman is helping along his development by not batting him directly in front of the pitcher—and he could move to the top of the order if he has early-season success. Barring some major luck on balls in play, Espinosa’s speed and power will likely be accompanied by a batting average in the .250 range, but that still makes him well worth a late-round pick.

26. Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners (MDC ADP: 380, Yahoo ADP: 245)

Pineda makes for a perfect endgame pick. By that point in the draft, you’ve hopefully filled your roster with enough trustworthy starters to fill your innings in the early part of the season. So why not add a high-upside flier like Pineda instead of a mediocre (from a fantasy perspective) veteran with a low strikeout rate like Mark Buehrle or Jake Westbrook?

There are legitimate questions about whether Pineda is ready for the Major Leagues, particularly whether he has the secondary pitches necessary to complement his big-time fastball. But Pineda has all the talent you could ask for, pitches in a ballpark that will allow him to get away with some mistakes and is not in the toughest division.

It’s impossible to predict what Pineda can do in 2011, but if you can make room for him on your bench, it’s better to find out what he’s capable of while he’s on your roster than on one of your opponents’.

25. Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox (MDC ADP: 182, Yahoo ADP: 148)

I have mixed feelings about recommending Beckett as a sleeper. He’s looked awful this spring, there’s some injury risk here, and he’s not falling all that far in drafts, which means you’ll need to use a mid-round pick on him if you’re a believer. I think he’ll be worthy of a 15th round pick, but he’s not as big a bargain as many of the other names on this list.

The thing that makes Beckett appealing is that he still strikes out plenty of batters and has plenty of win potential, so he should have at least some value, even if he doesn’t fully rebound. I am not buying him as a fantasy ace, but considering he is only 30 and coming off a career worst BABIP and strand rate and second-worst HR/FB rate, some rebound is likely. It would also help if he got his walk rate back down to where it was from 2007-2009.

Draft Beckett for 13-15 wins, eight strikeouts per nine innings, an ERA around 4.00 and a WHIP in the low-to-mid 1.20s and I think you’ll be satisfied based on where he’s going in drafts right now. Just don’t reach too far.

24. Erik Bedard, SP, Seattle Mariners (MDC ADP: 379, Yahoo ADP: 245)

Bedard looks healthy this spring, and he’s always at least somewhat useful when he’s healthy.

Bedard’s seasons tend to alternate between solid Ks, ERA and WHIP (2006 and 2008) and excellent Ks, ERA and WHIP (2007 and 2009). It’s hard to know whether an entire season missed due to injury puts him on track for one of his solid or excellent seasons, but he’s certainly in the right ballpark and division to at least give fantasy managers some hope that it’s the latter.

Bedard hasn’t topped 83 innings since 2007, so you’re really only drafting him hoping he can pitch half a season. But based on where he’s going right now, and how he looks this spring, half a season of Bedard is well worth the price.

23. Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland A’s (MDC ADP: 317, Yahoo ADP: 237)

While we’re discussing injury-prone players, we might as well throw Coco into the mix (mmm, that sounds tasty). Crisp hasn’t reached 500 at-bats since 2007, but his 2010 line hints at the huge upside he could have if he manages to play a full season atop the lineup in Oakland.

Crisp put up his first 30-plus SB season in 2010, and he did it in just 290 at-bats. Truth be told, Crisp has run much more in recent years, but he hasn’t played enough to make that jump noticeable in his end-of-year numbers.

Each team has its own rules and attitudes about stolen bases, so when evaluating speedsters, I like to go after guys who have already shown that they have the green light with their current team. The A’s let Crisp run wild last year, so there’s no reason they shouldn’t do the same this year.

Extrapolating last year’s numbers to 600 at-bats, Crisp would have put up 100 Runs, 16 HRs, 76 RBIs, 64 SBs and a .279 batting average. According to Baseball Monster, Crisp was the 10th most valuable hitter on a per-game basis among players who appeared in at least 50 games in 2010. The odds are against Crisp playing a full season or continuing to produce at quite that rate, but last year’s success makes him a terrific upside play based on where he’s going in drafts this spring.

22. Nate McLouth, OF, Atlanta Braves (MDC ADP: 380, Yahoo ADP: 238)

Simply put, Nate McLouth was McLousy last year. McAwful. McAtrocious.

McLouth batted just .190 in 2010 with six HRs and seven SBs in 85 games. He struck out too much, didn’t walk enough and showed an alarming lack of power.

But there are reasons for optimism. McLouth will never win a batting title, but his .221 BABIP in 2010 was well below the previous three seasons (.299, .287, .281). McLouth’s inability to consistently make contact or drive the ball could also partially be explained by nagging injuries he suffered during the year, including a mid-season concussion.

Yes, it’s a small sample size, but McLouth finished the season with a strong September (.275 average, three HRs, three SBs), suggesting the skills he displayed from 2007-2009 are still there. And while you should never put too much weight into spring training numbers, it’s nice to see McLouth hitting over .300 this spring after putting up a .118 average last March and carrying those struggles into the regular season. At the very least, it’s allowing him to enter the season feeling confident.

At 29 years old, there is plenty of reason to believe McLouth’s BABIP and ISO can return to his career averages, meaning another 20-20 season with a batting average in the .255-.260 range is very possible.

21. Leo Nunez, RP, Florida Marlins (MDC ADP: 348, Yahoo ADP: 181)

People don’t seem to realize this about Leo Nunez, but he’s a Major League closer. And while he may not have the firmest grip on the job after temporarily losing it to Clay Hensley last September, Nunez still has more job security than half the closers in the league. That has value.

The closer situations across baseball are more uncertain this year than at anytime in recent memory. Many teams have injured closers, committee situations, or save men on a very short leash. Lots of relievers may have better stuff than Nunez, but their paths to saves are indirect at best.

Hensley is a trendy pick to steal the closer job away from Nunez again at some point this year, but it’s not likely to happen anytime soon. Nunez has refined his slider this spring, and the pitch has been receiving rave reviews. Despite a rocky August last year, Nunez has saved 56 games for the Fish over the last two seasons and actually improved markedly last year over the previous season.

While other managers are reaching for exciting young arms like Jake McGee, Luke Gregerson, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard and Kenley Jansen in the hope that they can find their way into saves, boring old Leo Nunez will continue picking up saves with decent enough peripherals.

20. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B/DH, Kansas City Royals (MDC ADP: 379, Yahoo ADP: 242)

While position scarcity enthusiasts may tell you to grab middle infielders and third basemen early in your draft, fielding a team without a big-time power-hitting first baseman is a dangerous game to play. Just ask the guys in the Yahoo Friends and Family league who didn’t grab a top 1B early.

There is more speed to be had in fantasy leagues than there has been in quite some time, but a lot less power. In addition, most of the legit power hitters are first basemen who go early in drafts. As such, it’s pretty tough to find a late-round first basemen who can keep you competitive with opponents who invest more heavily in the position.

If you’ve waited on a first baseman in a shallow mixed league draft, you might as well try to catch lightning in a bottle with young players that have the upside to eventually join the more established stars, rather than pinning your hopes on the Aubrey Huffs, Adam LaRoches and Carlos Lees of the world. Guys like that can be had on the waiver wire throughout the season.

Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman are interesting names to consider, but I prefer Ka’aihue’s chances to start raking from the get-go this year. He has been absolutely crushing the ball this spring, playing time is not an issue, and a 20-plus HR season should be in store even if his batting average ends up in the .250-.260 range. Of course, with young players like Ka’aihue, even better numbers than that are certainly possible, which is exactly why you should draft him.

19. Travis Wood, SP, Cincinnati Reds (MDC ADP: 345, Yahoo ADP: 241)

While plenty of other Reds hurlers have received more hype in recent years (Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto), Wood delivered better fantasy numbers last year than any of the others have to this point in their Major League careers.

Wood’s 1.08 WHIP was tied for eighth-best among pitchers who threw at least 80 innings last year, and he put up a rock solid 3.51 ERA and 3.42 FIP with a decent strikeout rate. Wood is a fly ball pitcher in a hitters’ park who benefited from a fairly low 6.3 percent HR/FB rate, so his ERA could creep up a bit. On the other hand, he also had a pretty low strand rate, so it’s not like he was massively lucky last year.

A young pitcher who could also improve his craft, Wood is one of my favorite upside starting pitching picks late in drafts.

18. Angel Pagan, OF, New York Mets (MDC ADP: 276, Yahoo ADP: 170)

Consider this: only three players—Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Pagan—managed to steal 35-plus bases in 2010 while also hitting double digit home runs. Pagan may not have quite the wheels as some of the other big-time steals plays (Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Michael Bourne, Juan Pierre), but none of those guys have ever hit 10 home runs in a season.

Pagan also hit .290 last year, and most projection systems expect him to be able to maintain both the batting average and the power while continuing to run. There’s really no reason they shouldn’t expect him to keep it up—Pagan’s .306-54-6-32-14 line in 88 games in 2009 was perfectly in line with what he did last year. In addition, he should continue to score plenty of runs hitting near the top of the Mets’ lineup.

Given how many speedy outfielders there are this season, and the fact that many are falling further than they should be falling, it’s a good goal to draft at least one. With Pagan, you’ll get the speed and some decent power as an added bonus.

17. Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF, Detroit Tigers (MDC ADP: 320, Yahoo ADP: 223)

It will be interesting to see what Raburn can do with a full season of at-bats. As a part-time player the last two seasons in Detroit, Raburn has smacked 31 HRs in just 632 at-bats while hitting at a quite respectable .285 clip. Considering he has 2B eligibility in Yahoo leagues, those numbers are even more appetizing.

Raburn has hit for more power against lefties than righties to this point in his career, but he’s been pretty solid against both, so talk that Raburn could end up stuck in a platoon with Brennan Boesch will definitely be put to rest if Raburn just keeps swinging the bat like he has been the last couple years.

If Raburn does manage to get 500-plus at-bats, it would be surprising if he didn’t put up at least 20-25 HRs with a decent batting average and a handful of steals. That should be good enough to make him a starting-caliber 2B in mixed leagues.

16. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland A’s (MDC ADP: 174, Yahoo ADP: 157)

Gonzalez’s draft stock has been soaring lately, to the point where he is barely being taken late enough to make this list. But he’s still a solid upside pick based on where he’s being selected.

Gonzalez is a highly-regarded young arm coming off an impressive first full season in the Major Leagues. He had an ERA below 3.70 in five of six months and posted a cool 2.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after the All-Star break.

His Achilles heel to this point has been one of the highest walk rates in baseball. However, Gonzalez was completely dominant in 41 innings in August (1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), which provides some hope that he can begin to cut down on his walks and take his game to the next level. His strikeout rate was also down a bit last year, but it could well rebound to nearly a strikeout per inning in 2011.

Given his pedigree, ballpark and division, Gonzalez is a safe bet to be a solid contributor while also possessing the upside to join the game’s elite pitchers.

15. Magglio Ordonez, OF, Detroit Tigers (MDC ADP: 221, Yahoo ADP: 230)

Ordonez is a great example of a player that fantasy managers either wrongly assume is washed up or have grown tired of for some reason.

It’s true that Ordonez does not have the 30-plus HR power he displayed earlier in his career, and he’s not a great bet to stay healthy after playing in just 215 games over the last two seasons. He hits in the middle of an imposing lineup, however, and is still one of the better pure hitters in the game.

If he manages a full season of at-bats, Ordonez is very likely to have 20-plus HRs and a .300-plus batting average while breaking the century mark in both RBIs and runs. There simply aren’t that many players in baseball who have a good shot at putting up those kind of numbers, and most of them aren’t going in the 18th round of fantasy drafts. Despite the injury risk, he’s a great upside pick.

14. Jon Rauch, RP, Toronto Blue Jays (MDC ADP: 376, Yahoo ADP: 238)

When it comes to relievers who are not the undisputed closer for their team, I will always prioritize guys who are getting saves now over those who may get them down the road. With both Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel starting the season on the disabled list, Rauch is going to get a chance to pick up some saves from the get-go.

Manager John Farrell insists that Francisco will remain the closer when he is healthy. Francisco managed to visit Dr. James Andrews and live to tell about it, so it doesn’t sound like his injury is too serious.

The simple truth is that every year managers publicly stand by their original closer before eventually going with someone else, and Francisco’s resume as a ninth-inning guy really isn’t any better than Rauch’s. Francisco has 32 career saves and lost his closing job in Texas last season. Rauch has similar peripherals to Francisco and 47 career saves.

Would it really be that surprising if Rauch got off to a hot start closing games and never gave up the job? Or if Francisco struggled upon returning and quickly lost the job back to Rauch? Draft Rauch late both for the short-term saves and the potential to grab saves all season long.

13. Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies (MDC ADP: 270, Yahoo ADP: 204)

Chacin has a lot in common with Gio Gonzalez. Both pitchers have had trouble with walks but have great stuff and put together impressive performances after the All-Star break.

Chacin’s second half consisted of a 2.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. While not nearly as effective at Coors Field as on the road, he misses enough bats to succeed in any ballpark. Chacin struck out more than a batter per inning in 2010, he induced plenty of ground balls, and his peripherals largely backed up his impressive 3.28 ERA.

Chacin will need to find a way to cut down on the walks to become a truly dominant starter, but even if he continues to dole out the free passes, he should have little trouble getting a sub-4.00 ERA, sub-1.30 WHIP and a whole bunch of strikeouts.

12. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees (MDC ADP: 187, Yahoo ADP: 128)

With speedsters, it’s probably best to try to take whichever one falls the furthest. However, I can certainly see the argument for prioritizing guys like Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury, who hit atop impressive lineups, over a guy like Michael Bourn, who stands little chance of scoring nearly as many runs.

The question, then, becomes why Ellsbury (MDC ADP: 63, Yahoo ADP: 86) is going so far ahead of Gardner in fantasy drafts. The difference on Mock Draft Central is particularly confusing.

Ellsbury is a better bet than Gardner to put up a batting average in the .290-.300 range, so I can see the Boston outfielder going a round or two earlier. Ellsbury is also coming off an injury- riddled season, however, which has raised questions about whether he will always be injury- prone. Consequently, he may be the riskier pick.

Gardner should hit at least .270 with 100-plus runs, 50 or so RBIs and 40-plus steals. That is a valuable commodity to acquire in the middle rounds of a mixed league draft.

11. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (MDC ADP: 187, Yahoo ADP: 179)

Kuroda is a perennially under-appreciated commodity. In his three seasons in Los Angeles, Kuroda has thrown nearly 500 innings with a 3.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His peripheral stats back up those numbers and his strikeout rate, while hardly elite, is good enough that he won’t harm your strikeout total in leagues with an innings cap.

He’s yet to have a season where he won more than 11 games, but that is bound to change sooner or later if he continues to pitch this well. He doesn’t pitch deep enough into games to see a huge jump in wins, but with the Dodgers offense supporting him, 15 wins could be attainable.

Even if he doesn’t manage a jump in wins this season, Kuroda has been a top-30 starting pitcher on a per-game basis over each of the last two seasons, and he should be able to repeat that feat again this year. Yet, he is typically the 45th-50th starter drafted in mixed leagues. That, my friends, is a bargain.

10. Ted Lilly, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (MDC ADP: 218, Yahoo ADP: 150)

It’s impossible to mention Kuroda as a late-round steal without also giving a shout-out to his rotation mate, Mr. Lilly. Like Kuroda, Lilly pitches in a pitchers park and division and has put up a great ERA and WHIP for years with decent strikeouts.

Lilly’s strikeout rate and WHIP are a bit better than Kuroda’s. In fact, Lilly’s 1.07 WHIP over the last two seasons is the best of any qualified starter in baseball during that time. Unlike Kuroda, Lilly is a fly ball pitcher that gives up his fair share of home runs, so their ERAs tend to end up being similar.

Overall, Lilly is the slightly more valuable commodity, but he’s also the slightly more expensive one—at least in Yahoo leagues. There’s no point in quibbling over which one is a better draft day steal, though. With the ability to consistently post an ERA in the mid-3.00s and a WHIP under 1.20, both pitchers are excellent bargains.

9. Jonathan Broxton, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (MDC ADP: 164, Yahoo ADP: 120)

In the time I’ve been putting this article together, Broxton’s average draft position at Mock Draft Central has risen to just beyond my initial cutoff, but I’m not going to drop him from the list for it.

There is lots of current speculation that Broxton is on a short leash as the Dodgers’ closer, but I’m not buying it. Hong Chih-Kuo is a good pitcher, but his elbow is too brittle to allow him to pitch on back-to-back days. Kenley Jansen is another name that frequently comes up, but he’s thrown a grand total of 27 innings in the Major Leagues to this point in his career, and the Dodgers aren’t about to hand over the closer role to someone that inexperienced when they are aiming for a division title.

The biggest reason I’m not worried about Broxton’s job security, however, is that he’s about to have a big year.

Broxton was one of the most dominant closers in baseball in 2009, finishing with a 2.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 36 saves and incredible 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. As of June 26, he was well on his way to another dominating season in 2010 with a 0.83 ERA. Fatigue did him in, though. After a 48-pitch effort against the Yankees on June 27, Broxton just wasn’t the same pitcher in July, August or September.

Heading into a contract year, I fully expect Broxton to be his usual dominant self as the Dodgers are careful not to overwork him.

8. Matt Thornton, RP, Chicago White Sox (MDC ADP: 207, Yahoo ADP: 149)

Thornton has three straight seasons of excellent setup work on his résumé, as he’s had an ERA below 3.00, a WHIP below 1.10 and a K/9 rate above 10.00 in all three seasons. Now he is finally getting the chance to bring his nasty stuff to the ninth on a regular basis.

While there’s always a bit of risk investing in a new closer, Thornton already has 17 career saves, so he’s been able to gradually get used to pitching in the ninth. And although top prospect Chris Sale may be the team’s closer of the future, the White Sox have always had a “win now” mentality and it’s clear that Thornton is the best bet to help them do that, so he should have plenty of job security.

If Thornton can translate his numbers as a set-up man to closing, he could easily finish among the top five fantasy closers this year.

7. Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox (MDC ADP: 141, Yahoo ADP: 177)

Pierre is quite possibly the best of the speedy outfielders available on draft day, but he’s rarely the first one to be taken.

Pierre had 16 more steals that anyone else last year, marking the eighth time he’s stolen at least 45 bases. In other words, while there is more speed than usual available in drafts, Pierre is still a difference-maker in the category. Plus, while he only hit .275 last year, Pierre is a .298 career hitter, something that separates him from some of the other speedsters who struggle in batting average.

While he doesn’t play for the Red Sox or the Yankees, Pierre should score plenty of runs hitting atop the White Sox’ powerful lineup. With his potential for elite production in Runs, SBs and batting average, Pierre is a nice pick in the 15th round of a draft.

6. Colby Lewis, SP, Texas Rangers (MDC ADP: 119, Yahoo ADP: 180)

Lewis was one of my favorite endgame picks last year, after I saw projections that had him taking what he learned in Japan and using it effectively stateside. And yet, after being every bit as good as I hoped he would be in 2010, Colby is still underrated in Yahoo leagues.

While some people are questioning whether Lewis can repeat his 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 196 strikeouts from last season, I think he could actually better it. Lewis had a 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at the All-Star break, but the long Major League season seemed to take a toll on him—he was not nearly as effective in the second half. With that experience in mind, Lewis may be able to develop the endurance this year to maintain his early season performance throughout the entire season.

Lewis’ peripherals back up his performance from last year, but even with some slight regression, he’d be worth quite a bit more than a 16th round pick. It’s hard to find a mid-round pitcher with the potential Lewis has to significantly help you in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

5. Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (MDC ADP: 282, Yahoo ADP: 204)

The last—and most underrated—of the speedster outfielders, Davis hit .284 with 50 SBs last season after hitting .305 with 41 SBs in 2009. He did not play a full slate of games in either season, which means that even more stolen bases could be in store for Davis in 2011.

While Davis has shown the ability to pair a solid average with a league-leading stolen base total, one thing he hasn’t done is hit for any power. However, even that could start happening this year.

Under the tutelage of Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, Davis is reportedly developing some power to go with his speed. Davis’ value could skyrocket if he is able to reach double digit HRs while hitting around .290 and nabbing 50 bases or more. If he is able to pull that off, his value won’t be all that different from Carl Crawford’s.

Even if he just repeats what he’s done the last couple years, Davis is a steal.

4. Mike Aviles, 2B/SS/3B, Kansas City Royals (MDC ADP: 168, Yahoo ADP: 198)

In leagues where he has shortstop eligibility, Aviles is a highly underrated option for filling a very scarce position.

Excluding his 2009 season (almost completely lost to injury), Aviles has hit .314 in 843 at-bats over the 2008 and 2010 seasons. He also has collected 18 HRs and 22 SBs over those two seasons, which averages out to about 13 HRs and 16 SBs per 600 at-bats. According to Baseball Monster, Aviles’ per game value ranked third among all shortstops in 2008 and sixth among all shortstops in 2010.

Hitting leadoff for the Royals this year, Aviles should finally surpass at least the 500 at-bat mark, meaning he can translate that per game value to a full season. If he stays healthy and in the lineup, he can reasonably be expected to hit .300 with 15 HRs, 15 SBs and around 90 runs scored.

For those who don’t have the luxury of drafting Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki, Aviles can give you solid production for a very affordable price.

3. Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees (MDC ADP: 150, Yahoo ADP: 188)

Posada is another great example of an older player who has been prematurely forgotten by fantasy owners. Posada still has catcher eligibility, but he won’t be playing catcher this year. Consequently, he stands a much better chance of playing everyday and staying healthy.

His batting average dropped to .248 in 2010, but the power was still there as Posada smacked 18 HRs in just 383 at-bats. If he can come closer to 500 at-bats in 2011, he’ll have a great shot at 20-plus HRs, a total of only four catchers managed to reach last year.

Posada’s average was held down by the lowest BABIP he’s ever had in a full season, so while some of the drop-off may be age-related, Posada could well return to hitting in the .265-.285 range. He should also continue to drive in and score plenty of runs hitting in a loaded Yankees lineup.

Add it all together, and you have a likely top-10 catcher going five or more rounds after comparable players.

2. Alcides Escobar, SS, Kansas City Royals (MDC ADP: 343, Yahoo ADP: 256)

Is there really that big of a difference between Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar?

Yes, Andrus is in a better lineup and should score more runs. In addition, there’s no question Andrus is more established and less risky, having put together back-to-back 30 SB seasons.

As recently as last year, however, Escobar was just as high a prospect as Andrus. He’s also just as fast as Andrus and has the contact skills to hit for as high an average as Andrus—if not better.

Escobar was simply not given the chance to steal bases last year. Part of it was his own doing, as he struggled to reach base consistently. However, it can also be partially explained by having to hit eighth in the lineup in the National League for much of the year. It’s tough to see good pitches to hit in that situation, and when you do manage to reach base, you’re not going to get the green light very often when the pitcher can just bunt you over. Manager Ken Macha didn’t play very aggressively on the base paths, either.

A change of scenery could do Escobar quite good in 2011, and you won’t have to pay much to find out. There is a real chance that this late round pick could hit .280 with 80 runs and 30-plus SBs this year.

1. Manny Ramirez, OF/DH, Tampa Bay Rays (MDC ADP: 158, Yahoo ADP: 202)

Don’t doubt Manny Ramirez. He’s just too good of a hitter.

Ramirez hasn’t played a full season in either of the last two years, and he struggled in his brief stint with the White Sox last year, but for the most part he has continued to hit the ball very well. I have the feeling he will be extra motivated to play this year after signing for just $2 million and returning to the AL East to regularly face the Red Sox and Yankees.

Ramirez has never hit below .290 in a full season, so I wouldn’t bet on it happening this year, either. And while his power was down last year, it would not be at all surprising to see him again top 30 HRs in 2011. The Rays lost some good hitters over the offseason, but they should still have plenty of offense, allowing Ramirez to put up very strong RBI and run numbers as well.

Manny will be Manny until proven otherwise, and that means a .300-30-100 season is possible for a player going in the 19th round in Yahoo leagues.

If you’re the type of person that reads this website, you’ve undoubtedly heard by now that the deadline has come and gone for Albert Pujols to reach a contract extension with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals reportedly offered “more than $200 million over nine or 10 years” for the future Hall of Famer and even an ownership stake in the team. But it just wasn’t enough for the game’s best player.

Pujols has apparently “told the team he’ll still give them a chance in the window between when the season ends” and free agency begins, but that still means he’ll play out his walk year with free agency looming.

The news will surely send shivers down the spines of Cardinals fans everywhere, as their heads are filled with nightmares of Pujols donning a Chicago Cubs jersey. Just ask Cleveland Cavaliers fans how they felt in LeBron James’ final year of his contract.

But there’s another—albeit less dramatic—story line here: What does this news mean for Pujols’ fantasy value?

Pujols enters the 2011 season as the clear No. 1 player in fantasy baseball. While a few fantasy writers have chosen to rank Hanley Ramirez or Miguel Cabrera ahead of Pujols, those rankings appear to come from an overemphasis on position scarcity or the desire to be different for the sake of being different.

Ramirez is the rare elite hitter at SS, but he doesn’t put up the type of eye-popping numbers in any rotisserie category that Pujols does.

Cabrera is Pujols-lite: He’s has never topped 40 HRs (Pujols has hit 40-plus HRs six times), and he’s a .313 career hitter (Pujols is at .331). The fact that Cabrera’s drinking problem has now resurfaced makes it even more difficult to compare him to Pujols going forward.

So does Pujols’ contract situation threaten his No. 1 fantasy player status, or does it vault him even further ahead of the competition? Let’s break this question down into two sections: the short term (this year) and the long term (the next five to 10 years).

Short Term

Many players have put together career seasons in their contract years. If Adrian Beltre was able to hit .334 with 48 HRs in a walk year, imagine what Pujols might be able to do.

Pujols may not show it on the outside, but he has to be motivated to show the world that he has every right to ask for the largest contract in baseball. On a rational level, he surely understands the economics of the situation from a team standpoint, but that doesn’t mean he won’t also feel slighted on an emotional level.

He could very well turn that fury into stats we haven’t seen since the end of the steroid era.

Of course, there are also some players who struggle in their walk years. Sometimes it comes down to circumstances or bad luck (injuries), but in many instances it comes down to whether a player thrives or wilts under the pressure of playing for a big payday.

This isn’t your typical walk year either. Pujols has tried his best to get out in front of the story and make it clear that he won’t talk about his contract situation with the Cardinals or the media during the season, but as the LeBron James situation showed, that doesn’t mean the story is going to hibernate for six months. Pujols is going to feel far more pressure than the Adrian Beltres of the world ever did.

That said, this also isn’t your typical player. Throughout his career, Pujols has displayed a level of class, professionalism and maturity that is equal to his on-field abilities. This isn’t Javier Vazquez (or Cabrera) we’re talking about here—if anyone can handle the intensity of this situation, it’s Pujols.

We already know everything we need to know about Pujols’ on-field skills. We also know a lot about his off-field demeanor, but after this ordeal, we’ll know more.

The bet here is that Pujols rises to the challenge and posts a fantasy line in 2011 at least equal to his average season. A true career year (50-plus HRs) is certainly possible.

Long Term

The long-term question when it comes to Pujols’ fantasy value gets to the crux of the situation: What team will he play for in 2012 and beyond?

If Pujols does leave the Cardinals, there is a good chance it will help his fantasy value.

In 2010, Busch Stadium ranked as the seventh-most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors. Given the troubling state of the Mets’ finances, the Los Angeles Angels are the only potential team in the Pujols sweepstakes that plays in a worse stadium for hitters than Busch.

If he does leave St. Louis, the most likely destination for Pujols is with the rival Chicago Cubs. The Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field is the third-most friendly park for hitters. The next most logical team to sign Pujols is the Texas Rangers, who play in the sixth-most friendly ballpark for hitters.

The Red Sox (seventh-best hitter’s park) and Yankees (second-best hitter’s park) both already have top-tier first basemen (Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira, respectively) but can’t be counted out when a player of Pujols’ magnitude is on the market.

All four of these teams would also likely be able to construct a better lineup around Pujols than the Cardinals can offer. OF Matt Holliday is as good a cleanup hitter as you could hope for in terms of providing protection, but St. Louis lacks impact bats throughout the rest of the lineup.

If the Cardinals are somehow able to re-sign Albert, it would seem as though his long-term value would remain unchanged. But that’s not necessarily the case.

St. Louis is a great baseball city with terrific fans, and the Cards frequently finish in the top five in baseball in attendance. But at the end of the day, the Cardinals are a mid-market team, and that’s not going to change whether or not they keep Pujols.

The biggest reason the Cardinals have been reluctant to give Pujols a record-breaking contract is that they worry they won’t have enough money left to continue to build a team around him. Or worse yet, they’ll have to immediately begin to dismantle the team they’ve already built.

Many eyebrows were raised last winter when the Cardinals managed to come to terms with Holliday (and his agent Scott Boras) on a seven-year, $120 million deal that included a full no-trade clause. That deal was meant to assure Pujols that the Cards were committed to winning and that he’d have protection in the lineup, but it also made re-signing Albert much more difficult.

The Cardinals had the 11th-highest payroll in baseball last year at $93.94 million. Holliday is scheduled to receive $17 million per year over each of the next seven seasons.

If Pujols were to sign a 10-year, $300 million contract, as has been rumored may be necessary for the Cards to keep him, that would mean the team would be committing $47 million—or about half of last season’s payroll—to just two players for the life of Holliday’s contract. Add in the $24 million the team will owe Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter in 2012, and there is barely more than $20 million left for the rest of the team.

Yes, veterans like Carpenter and Lance Berkman will come off the books in the next year or two, but Wainwright and Colby Rasmus are going to become more expensive.

The bottom line is that unless they start spending significantly more on payroll, the Cardinals aren’t going to have the resources to put any other decent hitters around Pujols besides Holliday and perhaps Rasmus. That could affect Albert’s run and RBI production down the road.

It’s also possible St. Louis could decide it needs to convince Holliday to accept a trade, which could take a bigger toll on Pujols’ fantasy production. Under that scenario, Pujols could end up seeing a record number of intentional walks.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have never really put a great top-to-bottom lineup around Pujols in the past, and it hasn’t seemed to bother him much. So the impact may well be negligible.

Pujols could hit in a lineup filled with Little Leaguers, and he’d probably still manage to hit over .300 with 35-plus HRs. He’s just that good.

In the end, whether or not he stays in St. Louis, Pujols is so talented that he should remain the best fantasy player of them all well into his mid-thirties.

Maybe it’s the eternal optimist in me, but when it comes to fantasy baseball I’m a sucker for talented injury-prone players.  Call it “Ian Kinsler Syndrome.”

This will be my fifth straight year owning Kinsler in my 12 -team keeper league, and I just can’t let him go.  Sure, he’s only played an average of 125 games per season over the last four years, but there is no other second baseman in the game that can put up across-the-board production like Kinsler on a per game basis.

In 2009, the one season Kinsler surpassed 130 games played, he put up 101 Runs, 31 HRs, 86 RBIs and 31 SBs.  A 30-30 season from 2B!  The previous year, his counting stats were a bit lower, but he hit .319.

It’s probably fair to consider Kinsler more of a .280 hitter than a .320 hitter, and you obviously can never count on a 30-30 season, but Kinsler is one of the few players at any position that could conceivably put up a .300-100-30-85-30 line over 162 games.

Of course, he probably won’t get close to 162 games. But I’ll gladly take the elite per game production from Kinsler for as many games as he’ll give it, and then slot in another second baseman for the games Ian misses.

I’ll admit that I do occasionally enter into the mindset, “maybe this will be the year [injury-prone player X] plays a full season.”  But with a player like Kinsler, who consistently misses one month every season, you simply must prepare for the time he’ll inevitably miss.

The worst case scenario involves pairing Kinsler with a replacement-level 2B, i.e., the best 2B available on the waiver wire at the time Kinsler gets hurt.  In 12-team leagues, this will typically be a two-category player, usually a guy who gives you either 1) SB and Runs, 2) Avg. and Runs or 3) HRs and RBIs. According to Fan Graphs, the best example of a replacement level 2B in 2010 was Ryan Theriot, who had a .270-72-2-29-20 line in 586 at bats.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s exclude Kinsler’s 2010 season, in which he attempted to play through a nagging injury and performed at a level well below his career norms.  Instead, let’s take the average of Kinsler’s 2008 and 2009 seasons.

Since I’m discounting Kinsler’s 2010 campaign, I’ll round down all averages instead of the usual rounding up.  Here is Kinsler’s average output over the 2008-2009 seasons: .284-101-24-78-28 in 132 games (542 at bats).

That leaves 30 games left for Theriot. Based on his 2010 output, in 30 games Theriot produced a line of .270-13-0-5-4 in 108 at bats.  Hardly earth-shattering numbers, but they’re really just icing on the cake that is Kinsler’s production.

When you combine 132 games of Kinsler’s 2008-2009 production and 30 games of Theriot’s 2010 season, you end up with a line that looks like this: .282-114-24-83-32.

To put that in perspective, Brandon Phillips (’07) is the only second baseman besides Kinsler to have at least 20 HRs and 30 SBs in a season since 2001 (Phillips also reached 30-30).  But Phillips has only topped a .276 batting average once in his career.  Chase Utley is the only other second baseman that can put up elite numbers in all five rotisserie categories–his 2009 line of .282-112-31-93-23 shows why he’s the only 2B that can rival Kinsler’s potential for across-the-board numbers.

Now imagine if you plan ahead for Kinsler’s inevitable injury and draft a decent backup 2B.  Instead of replacing Kinsler with a two-category hitter like Theriot, you may be able to replace him with a three- or even four-category hitter, or maybe a guy who is truly a difference maker in one or two categories.  Think options like Martin Prado, Ben Zobrist, Kelly Johnson and Chone Figgins.

None of this means you should draft Kinsler before Robinson Cano, who doesn’t steal bases.  The point is that you can take Kinsler and still get terrific 2B production, even though he’ll likely miss a chunk of the season.

So who are some other injury-prone guys you should consider in shallow (12-team or less) leagues? Aramis Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, Kevin Youkilis, Rafael Furcal and Magglio Ordonez are some other hitters to look at.

The Kinsler Syndrome strategy is even more effective with pitchers.  Josh Johnson may be likely to miss some time during the season, but I’ll gladly draft 170 dominating innings from Johnson instead of 200 less certain innings from an upside play like Zack Greinke or Yovani Gallardo.  Other pitchers who fit the injury-prone label but are unhittable when healthy include Johan Santana, Eric Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Joe Nathan and Huston Street.  Some of those names are significantly more valuable than others, but they all make good mid- or late-round picks.

That said, not all injury-prone players will end up being bargains at the draft.  I’m a big fan of the injury discount, but you need to make sure you actually get a discount.

Josh Hamilton, for instance, is arguably the best hitter in baseball when healthy, but his injury risk is too high to take him in the first round.  Rickie Weeks is another injury-prone player who could actually end up being overvalued at drafts–I’m not as worried about his health as I am about his dramatic decline in steals and whether he can maintain the sudden spike in power.

League depth also matters.  If you play in an 18-team league, or an AL- or NL-only league, the options on the waiver wire when an injury occurs are going to be uninspiring, to say the least.

Overall, though, injury-prone players tend to be under-appreciated at most drafts.  So contract a case of Kinsler Syndrome and you’ll be ready to take advantage of your injury-phobic rivals.

If you’re like me, you started counting down the days to spring training the minute your fantasy football season ended.  We’re still at the point in the off-season where fantasy baseball analysis is relatively sparse, but there are still plenty of good (and not-so-good) reads out there.  One site that always puts out solid content is Razzball, where Grey has posted his overall top 20 and his top 20 catchers.  Here’s the RotoCop’s take on Grey’s rankings:

• First of all, Grey’s got Miguel Cabrera — not Albert Pujols — at #1.  I don’t usually get caught up in debating the cream of the crop, because it’s really more a matter of personal preference.  Could Cabrera end up with better numbers than Pujols?  Certainly.  They are both going to be beasts, and it’s unlikely either one will dramatically outperform the other, barring an injury or in Cabrera’s case, the off-field troubles that he seems to have moved on from.  But for my money, I’m still taking Pujols first. In seven full seasons, Cabrera has never broken 40 HRs or 10 SBs, and while he’s an elite batting average guy, he’s only once surpassed a .328 average.  Pujols, on the other hand, has topped 40 HRs in 6 of the last 8 seasons, has 14 or more steals in each of the last two seasons, and 2010 was the first year since 2002 that he hit below .327.  He’s turning 31 in a few days (Happy Birthday, Albert!), but until I see a decline in his production or a big increase in Cabrera’s, I have to give the edge to Mr. Pujols.

• While debating Pujols vs. Cabrera makes for some nice chatter, other things in Grey’s rankings are of much greater consequence for fantasy owners preparing for their drafts.  Grey’s rankings are always well thought out, and among the most reliable out there.  But there are a few things the RotoCop has to take issue with.  Grey places Ryan Howard (#8) and Prince Fielder (#10) well ahead of Adrian Gonzalez (#18).  I’ve already written about why I think Adrian is a 1st round pick this year, but even if you don’t subscribe to the theory that his road numbers as a Padre will fully translate to Boston, he should at least be valued on par with Howard and Fielder.  Even if Adrian doesn’t quite make it to a .300 average, his average should still be considerably higher than those of Howard and Fielder, who are likely to land in the high .270s, and have as much chance of hitting .260 as they do of hitting .290.  While it’s true Howard and Fielder both have multiple 45+ HR seasons on their resumes, A-Gone should be able to rival their power displays hitting at Fenway.  And even if he falls a bit short in the HR category, Gonzalez should surpass Howard and Fielder in Runs, and quite possibly RBIs, playing for a Boston team that trailed only the Yankees in runs scored last year and then upgraded Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez into A-Gone and Carl Crawford.

• Other eye-raising tidbits in the Razzball rankings: Robinson Cano comes in at #20 overall, and Carlos Santana comes in at #10 among catchers.  Grey suggests that Cano isn’t “that much better than [Dan] Uggla.”  Hmmm, don’t know about that.  While Grey is probably on solid ground pointing out that Cano’s lack of steals keeps him from being truly elite, his back-to-back years of .319+ batting averages and, to a lesser extent, his Run/RBI potential in the Yankee lineup, distinguish him from Uggla, who hit above .260 last year for the first time since his 2006 rookie campaign.  Time will tell whether Grey is right that Cano had a “career year in 2010,” or whether last year’s numbers (.319-103-29-109-3) are the new norm for him.  I agree that it’s unlikely he becomes a perennial 30+ HR guy, for what it’s worth… As for Santana, #10 seems pretty low, considering the competition.  Does Mike Napoli really deserve the #5 spot after registering a .238 season (albeit with 26 dingers)?  And while it’s entirely plausible that this is the year Matt Wieters busts out, does he really deserve to be four spots ahead of Santana after putting up a .249-37-11-55-0 season?  I don’t think you need to reach too far for a catcher, and I’d be ok with any of the top 10 guys, but I’d probably put Santana more in the category of Buster Posey, i.e. a top prospect I’d gamble on before I’d settle for solid non-difference-makers like Napoli, Geovany Soto, or old friend Hip-Hip-Jorge Posada.

When the Boston Red Sox completed a trade with the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez in early December, the move was met with as much fanfare as can be expected from a major off-season deal.  But as sports fans gradually transition to baseball mode, the excitement surrounding the A-Gone acquisition is sure to skyrocket.

While the Padres surprised the baseball world by competing for a playoff spot in 2010, they remain a small market team far from the northeast media machine.  When Gonzalez dons a Red Sox uniform, he will begin to attract the media attention that goes along with a prime spot in Red Sox Nation.

No doubt the fantasy experts will be increasingly hyping Gonzalez, too.  And why shouldn’t they?  He will be moving from the worst ballpark for hitters in all of baseball to Fenway Park, one of the best.  And he’ll be leaving a lineup with Chris Denorfia, David Eckstein, Miguel Tejada, and Ryan Ludwick, to join one featuring Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz.

But Gonzalez still seems a bit underrated in some fantasy circles. The numbers he put up outside of spacious Petco Park provide a sneak preview of what fantasy owners can expect. Extrapolating his road stats over the last four years to a full season, Gonzalez is averaging a .306 batting average, 45 HRs, 128 RBIs, and 112 Runs.  Look at only the last three years, and the numbers are even better.

Gonzalez is only 28 years old, meaning he just entered his prime.  He did have minor off-season surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, but the procedure did not prevent the Red Sox from dealing three strong prospects for him, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

Unless words spreads of a setback with Gonzalez’s shoulder, the move to Boston instantly vaults him ahead of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder in fantasy value among first basemen.  While RBI and Run totals are tough to predict, only Teixeira is likely to have the number of opportunities to produce that Gonzalez will hitting in the middle of a lethal Red Sox lineup.  But the real difference is that Gonzalez is the most likely of that group to pair a 40 HR season with a .300+ batting average. Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and perhaps Joey Votto are the only hitters in baseball more likely to reach those milestones than Gonzalez, and they’re the only first basemen who should be going ahead of him in fantasy drafts.

There’s no question that first base is deeper than most other positions this year.  And Gonzalez may have some minor growing pains as he learns American League pitchers.  But when you consider his potential to put up elite numbers in four of the five standard rotisserie league categories, Adrian Gonzalez has the look of a mid-to-late first round pick in fantasy leagues.

 

 

Jorge Cantu and Garrett Jones are my kind of players: Guys that nobody else seems to want to own that can help you win your league.  Now, there are some obvious differences between these two, namely that Cantu hits in a better lineup, is more proven, and has hit much better so far this year.  All that means, though, is that Cantu might be a little less underrated than he was a month ago (but still underrated by many), whereas the somewhat more risky Jones continues to fly well under the radar and can be had for a song (I just picked him up in my 12-team league and didn’t need to use a waiver claim to do it).

We’ll start with Cantu, who makes me wish I had started this website before he led baseball in RBIs in April… Anyway, Dalton Del Don of Rotowire could have been speaking for a lot more of the fantasy community than just himself when he uttered this mia culpa: “I’ve never been a big Jorge Cantu fan in fantasy leagues, but frankly, it’s been to my detriment.”  But let’s give Dalton some credit for living up to his past mistakes.  He hits on a point about Cantu’s power that I have been making ever since I approached my keeper league offseason without a third baseman: “While he still managed 100 RBIs last season, it’s pretty clear he was playing through a debilitating ankle injury, so a return to his 2008 type power (when he hit 29 homers) can’t be ruled out in 2010.”  It wouldn’t just be a return to his 2008 type power, either: Cantu also smacked 28 homers and 117 RBIs in his only other 500-plus at bat season in 2005.  When healthy, this guy’s legit.

Dalton also makes a good point when he writes that Cantu “has a better chance of driving in those runs because of his inability to walk much – that’s actually a plus in fantasy terms.”  Indeed, Cantu rarely forces his owners to endure the frustration that is watching your guy work the count and draw a walk with runners at the corners and nobody out.  You could argue that Cantu’s batting average would be a bit higher if he were a more patient hitter, but he’s actually hit over .285 in two of his three 5oo-plus at bat seasons, and is a .278 hitter for his career.  I’ll gladly take that at a scarce position when combined with nice RBI and HR production.

Now let’s move on to Jones.  I get to earn the money I’m not making on this website with this one, because the jury is still very much out of Garrett.  It’s certainly possible that Jones will end up being waiver wire fodder in all leagues by season’s end, but I don’t think he deserves to be there right now.  That’s why I was appalled when I read this from the Roto Times: “While [Jones is] a great source of cheap power in NL-only leagues, he’s borderline unownable in most mixed formats.”  Borderline unownable?  Really?  Let’s examine the facts.

These are Garrett Jones’ stats from 2009: 314 ABs, .293 avg., 45 Runs, 21 HRs, 44 RBIs, 10 SBs.  Granted, the RBI and Run production in a pretty weak Pirates lineup were not as elite as the other stats, but who wouldn’t want a guy who put up a half season of what would amount to 37 HRs and 18 SBs (with a .290+ batting average) in 550 at bats?  Plus, a glance at Garrett’s split stats shows that he absolutely owned right-handed pitching to the tune of a .333 avg., 15 HRs, and 9 SBs in 213 at bats.  For those of you scoring at home, that amounts to a 39 HR, 23 SB pace over 550 at bats, with an elite average to boot.  Now, through 93 at bats this year, Jones is hitting just .237 with 4 HRs, 17 RBI, 11 Runs, and 2 steals.  He’ll “only” get 24 HRs, 101 RBIs, and 12 steals if he keeps up that pace for 550 at bats.  Even those numbers don’t seem “borderline unownable” to me, unless you actually believe he’s going to hit .237 all season.

Some people might just not have noticed last year’s numbers because they were only in half a season.  And Jones was far from an elite prospect, so that probably explains why a lot of people think last year’s numbers were a fluke.  That line of thinking is working out real well with Casey McGehee, huh? The fact is, sometimes top prospects like Alex Gordon never pan out, and non-prospects like Jones and McGehee do.  I’m obviously more willing to jump on an elite prospect before some schmo who gets hot for a couple weeks, but I think we’ve seen enough from Jones and McGehee at this point to find room for them on our rosters, prospect status be damned.  The Pirates may not have a whole lot to choose from, but they’re batting Jones in the heart of their order, so clearly they like what they see.  His power/speed combo looks real to me, and the big-time splits make me happy to try him out against weaker right-handers while I find out if he’s the real deal.  If he’s not, I’ll have lost nothing besides a roster space for the time I owned him.

Following in the footsteps on Justin Smoak and Ike Davis, a couple rookies of note have been called up in the last couple days.  It’s always tough to predict what a young hitter is going to do their first (or second or third) time in the big leagues, but that doesn’t prevent fantasy writers from fielding their best guesses.  Here’s what a variety of fantasy experts are saying about the latest call-ups:

Kila Ka’aihue, 1B/DH, Royals

Yahoo’s Andy Behrens points out that Royals manager Trey Hillman said “Right now, you can view [Ka'aihue] as an extra bat off the bench.”  But Behrens concludes: “In a mixed league of respectable depth, I’d still add him, depending on my category and position needs. He’s an obvious pick-up in formats that use OBP. Ka’aihue seems to have mastered the minor leagues; there’s power upside here, if Hillman decides he’s interested.”

Rotoworld says that Ka’aihue is “worth watching for now, but might not get a real chance to profile his skills until the Royals can find a taker for Jose Guillen.”

FanGraphs’ Mike Axisa argues that Ka’aihue compares favorably with Ike Davis because he doesn’t have a “massive platoon split,” and that while Ka’aihue “might not have the defensive value and long-term outlook of Justin Smoak … he’s a bit older and his power is more present than projected.”  Axisa “guess[es]” that Ku-aihue will be the primary DH while Rick Ankiel is out (with Jose Guillen playing in the outfield), and concludes, “if you’re looking for a little boost from the 1B or UTIL spots, here’s your guy. That goes double if you’re in a deep mixed or AL-only league.”

Razzball’s Grey Albright says that “If given the chance at full playing time, the Royals could have a 25 homer, .400 OBP first baseman/DH.”  Grey adds, “Grab [him] in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues.  Everyone else, hold your junk until we see how his playing time shakes out and to make sure this Kila is shooting something besides BBs.”  Grey definitely gets a free pass on that pun, too, ‘cus it’s a good one.

KFFL’s Tim Heaney thinks that Ka’aihue will only “start once or twice a week, at first,” but still thinks that “Managers should be proactive in chugging some Hawaiian Punch in leagues that favor tucking away top offensive prospects. You’ll have to be patient, but the potential payoff shouldn’t be ignored.”

What does the Rotocop think about Ka’aihue, you ask?  First, I think I have no idea how to pronounce this dude’s name.  But more importantly, the playing time issue is key.  Not just because he needs to play regularly to be of use in fantasy leagues, but also because there’s no way to know how good he is if he doesn’t get on the field enough.  Most rookies struggle at first, and the Royals lineup isn’t going to make it any easier on Kila.  If I see that he’s playing regularly and hitting well, I may pounce, but someone else could very well jump on him before then, and I can live with that.  Except in the rare case of a Ryan Braun or Jason Heyward, where the upside is so high that you have to go out and get the guy immediately, I tend to be more tentative about rookies.  There’s simply no way to know whether Davis, Smoak, or Ka’aihue will be the better hitter in the major leagues.  It will probably take quite a while to know for sure, and in the meantime they’ll all probably give you worse stats than a boring veteran like, say, the guy Ka’aihue might be displacing at DH: Jose Guillen.

Steven Pearce, 1B, Pirates

The Royals aren’t the only small market team that is calling up a minor leaguer to try to jump start their weak offense.  Pearce, 27, is only a year older than Ka’aihue, but he’s already had some growing pains in the Major Leagues the last couple years, so he comes with a lot less hype.  Those are the type of guys that can make nice post-hype sleepers, although you need only look at the guy Pearce will be replacing in the lineup — Jeff Clement — to realize that a lot of guys just never live up to their initial prospect status.

A clear sign of Pearce’s fall from grace is that he’s not getting much written about his call-up in the fantasy community.  The Roto Times says that Pearce is “worth a look in most NL-only leagues” because he should get a fair amount of playing time, while Rotoworld says Pearce “is moving dangerously close to being labeled as a Quad-A bat,” but “could hold value in deeper NL-only leagues.” Most writers are more concerned with what Pearce’s presence will mean for Clement’s playing time.  Of course, Clement would be long forgotten too if he didn’t have catcher eligibility in a lot of leagues.

Bonus: Buster Posey, C, Giants

Speaking of catcher eligibility, the Roto Times notes that, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury-News, the Giants may be about to call up Buster Posey.  San Francisco badly wants to add another potent bat to their lineup, but given the way Bengie Molina is hitting so far this year, you probably could have won a lot of money in Vegas if you placed a bet on Posey getting called up before the Indians’s prized catcher, Carlos Santana.  Of course, Posey may end up playing more at 1B than catcher if he does get called up.  Regardless, he and Santana are the kind of rookie hitters I like to take a chance on, because they are eligible at a position where they don’t need to work miracles to have big-time value.  It’s a lot like why I targeted sophmore catcher Matt Wieters in drafts this year.  You don’t know exactly what you’ll get from him, but even if he doesn’t bust out this year, he should still be a top five catcher.

Several fantasy writers are making sure you remember that Jonathan Broxton is really good, even if he isn’t getting saves right now.  Rotoworld’s Thor Nystrom writes that “Broxton owners shouldn’t feel anxiety” about his lack of saves so far, while Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski similarly says, “Take heart, gamers, these things come in bunches.”  The Sporting News’ Matt Lutovsky also predicts that Broxton “will likely see a bunch [of saves] soon,” but decided to drop him a couple spots in his closer rankings anyway.  Bottom line: It’s near impossible to predict which closers will get the most saves.  The Dodgers are finally starting to win some games, which could help Broxton (hard to get saves when your team loses), but it’s entirely possible he ends up with closer to 30 saves than 40.  That doesn’t mean you should rush out and trade him for current saves leader Matt Capps.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman astutely points out that Ubaldo Jimenez is throwing a whole lot of pitches so far this season.  I’ll confess to being late to the Ubaldo party — I shied away from him in drafts because of his high walk rates the last two years — but he seems to being doing just fine so far (understatement), despite continuing to walk his fair share of batters.  However, while Ubaldo might be filthy enough to have a strong WHIP despite issuing a lot of free passes, you’ve got to think that his high number of strikeouts and walks is going to mean continued high pitch counts, which could mean a fatigued arm or injury later this year or next season.

According to the Rotoworld player news department, “It seems” White Sox hurler Jake Peavy is “finally over the command problems that plagued him during April.”  The Rotocop is a Peavy owner and is about as high on Peavy as anyone, but that still “seems” a bit charitable.  After all, Jake had TWELVE walks in his previous two starts before shutting down the Royals Monday.  This certainly could be the return of the Peavy I expected all along, but I’ll need to see more than one good start against the Royals before I plug him back in my lineup.  That being said, Peavy’s struggles have certainly been because of his lack of command, and NOT because of his switch to the American League, which has been significantly overblown.  Sure, moving to the DH league will always have some impact on a pitcher’s numbers, and it never hurts to pitch your home games in Petco Park.  But a quick glance at Peavy’s splits shows that he dominated every bit as much on the road as at home in  2004, 2005, 2007, and 2009, and his career numbers are somewhere between excellent and fine against every AL team except the 3 Ts: Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Texas. It just so happens that three of Peavy’s four starts against the 3 Ts were this year, and he walked almost a batter per inning in those contests.  It’s all about the command for Jake.

Brett Cecil is quickly establishing himself as the best player to sport a Blue Jay jersey since Prince Fielder’s daddy hung them up.  And even that Cecil might not count, since he only played for the Jays before he was any good (he then went to Japan to learn how to play the game, just like Colby Lewis).  But I digress… Fantasy experts are singing the praises of Brett Cecil after his dominant performance against the Tribe on Monday.  Rotoworld chimes in that “the Blue Jays may have something pretty special here” and dubs Cecil mixed league-worthy, and the Roto Times, which often says pitchers are worth a “flier,” gushes of Cecil, “If he remains unowned in any of your leagues, it should go without saying that you need to snatch him up.”  Yahoo’s Pianowski offers a more restrained endorsement of Cecil, reminding readers that he pitches in “the killer AL East,” but concludes that Cecil has already had some success against the Rays and Red Sox, and is well worth using in his next start against the ChiSox.  The RotoCop’s take?  Cecil has some major upside, so he’s certainly worth a “flier” if you’ve got the room on your roster.  But I’d much prefer to own Cecil’s teammate Ricky Romero, who’s had five excellent starts this year compared to Cecil’s two, and also pitched remarkably well prior to the All Star Break last year, whereas Cecil struggled throughout ’09.

Speaking of the Roto Times, every once in a while you see a piece of fantasy advice that makes you go “huh?” like Scooby Doo.  Roto Times saying that Alex Rios is “a fringe option in most average-sized mixed leagues” certainly qualifies.  According to the number-crunchers over at Baseball Monster, Rios was a top 40 producer in standard 5X5 rotisserie leagues in 2007, top 60 in 2008, and a top 75 player in 5X5 leagues so far in 2010.  That means there are roughly 10-20 fantasy outfielders who will do more to help your fantasy team win than Rios.  In other words, he’s a solid #2 OF in mixed leagues.  That doesn’t seem “fringe” to me.  Not to pick on Roto Times, which is a fine publication, but they also seem to have overlooked Timmy Lincecum when they wrote that Ubaldo Jimenez “is seriously challenging Roy Halladay for the mantle of ‘baseball’s best’ [pitcher] at the moment.”  Jimenez and Halladay have ever so slightly outperformed Lincecum so far, but he needs to at least be in the conversation.

Not a lot has been said so far about Ben Zobrist’s slow start, but Yahoo’s Brandon Funston points out that Zobrist is hitting fewer fly balls and swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone.  Funston concludes that Zobrist is “pressing,” but that “If anyone is selling Zobrist for less than 85 cents on the dollar, I’d get in on that deal.”  Hard to argue with that.  There is some risk with Zobrist given that he’s only had one big year and was never an elite prospect, but Shortstop is a fantasy wasteland this year, and even though Zobrist probably won’t maintain SS eligibility next year, you keeper leaguers can feel confident that his numbers will play well at 2B too.  With numbers like last year’s, he’d even be great in the outfield, but the jury’s still out on that level of production.  The bright side on this year’s performance is that Zobrist has already stolen five bases, which suggests his speed should help maintain his value until his bat picks up.  And even if he ends up being more of a 20-15 guy than a 30-20 guy, Zobrist should get lots of runs and RBIs hitting in a potent Rays lineup.

Funston is also among the many fantasy writers who have come around on the aforementioned Colby Lewis.  He points out that Lewis “already has three 10-K games, a mark that was bested by just Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and Jon Lester last season.”  The RotoCop has been very high on Lewis since the preseason, and for that I thank Jeremish Oshan of The Hardball Times, who noted before the season began that the Oliver projection system pegged Lewis to be a top 10 pitcher in 2010.  Tim Dierkes was also all over Lewis at Roto Authority, pointing out that the CHONE and PECOTA projections also suggested “Lewis could be quite valuable in any league.”  Of course, the CHONE and PECOTA projections were nowhere near as high on Lewis as Oliver (think high 3′s ERA and mid-1.20′s WHIP vs. low 3′s ERA and 1.09 WHIP), and most other fantasy writers were sleeping on Lewis.  But after reading what Oshan and Dierkes had to say, looking at the astounding numbers Lewis put up in Japan, as well as accounts of his matured approach as a pitcher, I was sold.  There’s no doubt that Lewis will have to adjust to pitching in the Texas summer heat, but he gets a bunch of starts against the A’s and Mariners to ease the pain.  I see no reason he can’t be a top-25 starting pitcher all season long.